18-20 March 2015
Cologne University of Applied Sciences, Germany
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C 3: Business Analytics with Social Media II
A Longitudinal Perspective on the Social Media Usage by Retailers
1Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, The Netherlands; 2Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, The Netherlands
Relevance & Research Question (longitudinal, social media use, retailers):
The past few years, many retailers have acknowledged the value of social media for their marketing strategy. However, not every retailer has been successful in maintaining their social media account(s), resulting in a decrease in the number of followers over the years. So far, little is known about the development of commercial social media strategies over time. This research focuses on the comparison between the social media usage of retailers in 2011 and that of the same companies in 2014 for various social media sites. Both the adoption of social media is investigated, as well as the factors that influence retailers’ success on social media.
Methods & Data (content analysis, web scraping, large samples, longitudinal analysis)
In 2011 an extensive research has been executed among more than 5,000 retailers in the Netherlands concerning their social media usage and their success on social media sites in terms of number of followers. In 2014, the same sample was used to analyze the changes in social media adoption between 2011 and 2014. It was investigated to what extent changes in adoption and success over the years are influenced by firm characteristics, online experience and online popularity. Data collection has been done from June 2014 to October 2014 by using Web scraping software as well as manual content analysis. Descriptive analyses, linear and logistic regression analyses were applied.
Results show that although social media adoption of retailers has increased, not all companies are as successful in 2014 as compared to 2011 (in 5% of the cases the number of followers declined). More specific, large and international companies have been significantly more successful over time as compared to national and small companies. In addition, influences of type of industry and online characteristics differ per social media site.
This research provides insight into the development of commercial social media use over time, which so far received little attention in the literature. Furthermore, it gives retailers knowledge on how similar companies have been doing with regard to the use of social media.
“Can Internet Searches Forecast Tourism Inflows?”
1Central Bank of Spain, Spain; 2University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands; 3University of Salamanca, Spain
Relevance and research question.-To improve the forecast of tourism inflows into Spain by use of Google -indices on internet searches measuring the relative popularity of keywords associated with travelling to Spain.
Methods and data.- Two models are estimated for each of the three countries with the largest tourist flows into Spain (Germany, United Kingdom and France): A conventional model, the best ARIMA model estimated by TRAMO (model 0) and a model augmented with the Google-index relating to searches made from each country (model 1). The overall performance of both models is compared.
Results.- The improvement in forecasting provided by the short-term models that include the G-indicator is quite substantial up to 2012, reducing out of sample mean square errors by 42%, although their performance worsens in the following years. Deeper study and conceptualization of sources of error in Google trends and data quality is necessary.
Added Value.- The paper illustrates that while this new tool can be a powerful instrument for policy makers as a valuable and timely complement for traditional statistics, further research and better access to data is needed to better understand how internet consumers’ search activities translate (or not) into actual economic outcomes.
Phubbing because of FoMO? – “Fear of Missing Out” as a predictor for problematic mobile phone use – when being alone and in company
Rheinische Fachhochschule Köln (RFH), Germany
Relevance/Research-Question: In recent month the new phenomenon “phubbing” (snubbing someone in favour of your mobile phone) emerged (Lobe, 2014). Additionally, it is argued that the use of modern internet services (e.g. social networks) can be seen as addicted behavior (Masur, 2013; Bosau, Aelker & Amaadachou, 2014a & 2014b). “Phubbing” could therefore be described as a consequence and manifestation of addicted habbits, i.e. addicted people can’t stop to use their mobile phones even when they are in company of friends. To explain this behavior the concept of FoMO (Fear of Missing Out) could be used since it was already successfully applied in similar research contexts (Przybylski, Murayama, DeHaan & Gladwell, 2013; Bosau et al., 2014b).
Methods/Data: The online-study (N=101) analyzed the influence of FoMO (measured by Przybylski et al., 2013) on the compulsive checking of mobile phones, operationalized by three different scales: a) general problematic mobile phone use (Güzeller & Cosguner, 2012), b) habitual checking tendencies (Bayer & Campbell, 2012), c) frequency of checking (Collins, 2013). To analyze differences of mobile phone use while being alone vs. being in company respondents had to answer scales b) and c) twice to disclose their behavior in the two different settings. Several stepwise regression analyses using bootstrapping were calculated to analyze the explaining power of FoMO.
Results: The results show that FoMO in general is a very strong predictor: people with more FoMO show more problematic mobile phone use. However, in social situations the problematic use is generally lower and the predictive power of FoMO is slightly smaller, i.e. being in company serves as a moderator and buffers to some extend the influence of FoMO on the checking behavior; although, FoMO is still highly correlated to all three behavioural indices. Interestingly, the influence of FoMO differs significantly between males and females and is commonly stronger for males.
Added Value: The study is a first step in explaining why people can’t stop to use their mobile phones, even when they are in social situations where they meet other people in person. It further highlights the explanatory power of the fairly new concept FoMO.
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